The "Giant Killer" Effect: What Happens After You Beat Djokovic, Nadal, Federer, Sinner or Alcaraz?
What happens if you bet on the player who just beat Djokovic, Nadal, Federer, Alcaraz or Sinner? How does he do in his next match? Results inside.
Get what I've learned in 20+ years of tennis betting.
What happens if you bet on the player who just beat Djokovic, Nadal, Federer, Alcaraz or Sinner? How does he do in his next match? Results inside.
Favorites have been a losing bet in Rio since 2010. The data shows a statistically significant gap with underdogs — and the brutal playing conditions might explain why.
( 16- 22 February) One of the slowest outdoor hard courts on tour. Delray Beach's high humidity makes the ball heavy and conditions grueling — key factors to consider this week.
(16 - 22 February) Court speed data, humidity analysis, and player insights reveal why Rio's slow clay is among the toughest on tour—and why underdogs consistently outperform here.
(16 - 21 February) Doha is played on slow hard outdoor courts. Variable wind conditions is a key factor, influencing pace throughout the week. Alcaraz and Sinner headline the draw.
I've been working with a betting syndicate as an external contributor. Here's how the deal is structured, how they use my picks, and what I've learned so far.
(9 - 15 February) The Dallas is played on indoor hard courts at the Ford Center in Frisco. Since the 2025 venue change, data points to a medium-pace surface with a relatively low bounce.
(9 - 15 February) The Buenos Aires marks the start of the clay season, featuring slow courts and conditions that reward clay specialists and well-acclimated players arriving from recent clay.
(9 - 15 February) Rotterdam's indoor courts present an intriguing puzzle: players describe slow, heavy conditions, yet the statistics tell a different story. Here's what the data really shows.
Match-fixing in tennis won’t disappear, but stronger oversight and higher prize money suggest it’s declining — and it should keep falling over the next few years.
(2 - 8 February) Montpellier’s indoor hard courts appeared historically slow, but 2025 data suggests a clear speed shift, likely from resurfacing. This faster conditions should favour big servers.
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Moneyline, handicaps, totals — bookmakers apply different settlement rules after retirements. You need to know exactly which rules your bookmakers follow.
Summary of a The Economist article on how bookmakers detect and block data-savvy gamblers — and how some manage to get around those restrictions.
Following tennis players on Insta - and their partners - can reveal rest periods the market ignores, adding valuable info to helps bettors find small edges.
A data-driven analysis of how Grand Slam matches are decided, from straight-sets wins to five-set battles and retirements.
Betting on underdogs at the Australian Open (Women) is a losing game, but less negative than in the men, due to the best-of-3 format.
Discover why betting on underdogs at the Australian Open is a financial disaster. An analysis of 2,008 matches reveals a brutal -20.1% yield.
What are betting brokers? Complete guide with 20 years of experience. BetInAsia & MadMarket reviewed + exclusive 0.11% lifetime cashback.
Data analysis of 40,000 ATP matches proves the Favorite-Longshot Bias in betting. Underdogs yield -5.6% vs -2.0% on favorites. See the evidence.
The Favorite-Longshot Bias is a concept any serious bettor should know. It can save you a lot of money if you often bet on big underdogs.
(12 - 17 January, 2026) Adelaide ranks among the fastest outdoor tournaments. Dry heat makes the ball fly, but night sessions bring slower, lower-bounce conditions.
(12 - 17 January, 2026) Auckland’s courts are quick, but the constant wind slows rallies, making the surface play closer to medium pace than raw speed suggests.
(5 - 11 January, 2026) Hong Kong returns with medium-paced hard courts, mild temperatures and moderate humidity. Clay courters could find opportunities here.
(4 - 11 January, 2026) Brisbane kicks off the season on one of the fastest outdoor hard courts on tour. Big servers thrive here. Heat and humidity will be key factors.