Tokyo 2026 - ATP 500 Preview

This is my preview of the ATP 500 of Tokyo (Kinoshita Group Japan Open Tennis Championships).

The first main draw matches will start on Wednesdey. On Tuesday we have the last matches of the qualifying draw. You can access both draws at the end of this email.

The tournament’s centre court has a retractable roof, which will be used in case of rain. And there’s a good chance it will be needed, as rain is in the forecast for several days during the tournament.

Speed Data

Here are the statistics of the last 4 years:

• 72.2% of points won on the first serve
• 80.8% of service games held
• 0.58 aces/game
• 0.21 tie-breaks/set

Based purely on these numbers, we can say that Tokyo is played on medium-pace hard outdoor courts. But… it's not so clear…I will discuss this in more detail later.

Previous winners

2025: Alcaraz d. Fritz

2024: Fils d. Humbert

2023: Shelton d. Karatsev

2022: Fritz d. Tiafoe

2019: Djokovic d. Millman

Sampras has lifted the trophy 3 times,  while Nishikori, Edberg and Courier have done it twice.

Weather

Weather conditions in Tokyo are expected to be mild and somewhat unsettled during the tournament, with daytime temperatures generally around 23–25°C (73–77°F) and overnight lows of 15–19°C (59–66°F). Humidity should be relatively high early in the week before becoming more comfortable, while rain is possible on several days, particularly around Thursday and again later in the weekend. Friday and Saturday currently look like the driest days. Winds are generally expected to remain light to moderate, so rain and humidity are more likely to have an impact on playing conditions than wind.

Player's quotes

Fritz, 2025: “I’ve been here before and like playing here but to be honest, the conditions are so different from the year I won my title here. When I won it was with different balls and it was extremely quick, lightning fast so I loved it. Different conditions but I think it helps being familiar where you are and knowing you’ve had success here."

Fils, 2024: "It was a tough match with tough conditions. The humidity was tough."

Ruud, 2023: “The points were quick. Sometimes when you get a longer really, which is what I want, I was rushing. I tried to be aggressive. I wasn’t as aggressive as him but I tried to fight fire with fire. I wanted to show him I could play aggressively as well.”

On playing Giron: “It’s a tough one. I played him two years ago, but it was maybe not his best day then. He moves well and hits a flat ball, which suits this fast, skidding court."

Paul, 2023: “Super fast conditions.” “It’s pretty quick, we also changed balls from last week, so they were flying a little more here.”

Nishioka, 2023: “I think my opponent is better suited to this kind of non-bouncing court. But I had no luck. He won all the big points. If I played 10 times, I would have won nine times, so I just think I was unlucky.”

Fritz, 2022: “I was more concerned about the cardio and my conditioning after being really sick and not having been able to do anything. Luckily the court was very fast, and so we were not playing long points, so physically I was OK.”

Kyrgios, 2022: "The court is obviously playing faster compared to normal hard court events. I'm not complaining about that, to be honest. I think big servers and guys who like to take the ball early and have flat backhands, I think it suits our game style. The court's probably faster than average, but I like it.”

Nishioka, 2022: "It's not easy to play after you win a tournament and come here. Not much time to adjust to the court, the balls. Everything is different, so I had to adjust, which is not that easy."

Summary

The reality, based on statistics from the last four years, is that if we compare them with data from other tournaments, the numbers tell us that it is a medium-paced hard court.

However, there is an overwhelming majority of players' opinions stating that the conditions are very fast, the ball bounces low, and the court is very slickery.

I have watched some matches, and indeed, it seems like fast conditions on courts where the balls slide a lot and the bounce is not high.

Additionally, the fact that players like Shelton, Medvedev, Fritz, or Kyrgios (in 2016) have won here is another factor to consider. If we focus on the last years, Humbert (finalist in 2024), Shelton, Giron, and Shapovalov are some of the semifinalists, which also says a lot.

All in all, courts suitable for aggressive players with flat strokes and big servers. Also, those players who have a good backhand slice, can do well here. Not the best conditions for players who like to lift the ball.

Draws

Here’s the link to the tournament draws, which you can check for updates at any time:

• Main draw: https://www.protennislive.com/posting/2026/329/mds.pdf
• Qualifying Draw: https://www.protennislive.com/posting/2026/329/qs.pdf