Shanghai Masters 2026 Preview: Court Speed & Weather

This is my Preview of the Shanghai Masters 1000, whose first matches will start in a few hours.

Surface Speed

Here are the statistics of 2023, 2024 and 2025. The tournament was not held in 2022, 2021 and 2020.

73.0% of points won on the first serve
82.3% of service games held
0.57 aces/game
0.22 tie-breaks/set

Previous winners

2025: Vacherot d. Rinderknech

2024: Sinner d. Djokovic

2023: Hurkacz d. Rublev

2019: Medvedev d. Zverev

2018: Djokovic d. Coric

Djokovic has won the tournament 4 times, Murray 3 times, and Federer 2.

Interesting fact: Nadal has never won it.

Weather

Over the next ten days, Shanghai is forecast to have daytime highs of 25–28°C (77–82°F), cooling to 21–24°C (70–75°F) later in the period, with overnight lows around 13–19°C (55–66°F). Relative humidity should generally average 50–70% during the day, rising to 70–90% overnight. Winds are expected to remain mostly light at 5–12 km/h (3–7 mph), with stronger breezes of around 18–21 km/h (11–13 mph) possible towards the end of the period. The later days of the forecast remain less certain.

You can check the latest forecast at any time here.

Player's quotes

Note: For the 2025 edition, the tournament has switched from Wilson balls to Yonex. In the past, many said the Wilson balls made it very hard to hit through the court — no matter how hard you hit the ball, it was difficult to hit winners or play aggressively. However, as you can read below, it doesn't seem that there has been a change on this regard.

Rune, 2025: "I think we should have a rule regarding extreme heat like they have at the Grand Slams, without a doubt. Any player would agree on that. It was around 31 degrees with a lot of humidity — still brutal. We can endure a certain amount of heat because we are athletes, strong, also mentally... but there is a limit. It's important that we take care of our health. There should be some kind of rule, maybe like at the Slams where they can wait if the heat gets too much."

Musetti, 2025: "The conditions are slow tonight, so it’s not easy to hit winners. I think I’m managing to play better on this surface this year, but it’s so humid here and the balls are getting heavier and heavier. I’ve never changed so many shirts — after 40 minutes, it’s like you’ve had a shower. But I can’t complain, I like it. You need to be a physical fighter to win these matches, so I’m really liking these conditions" . “The balls are heavy due to the humidity, the conditions are slow. The heat and humidity have affected matches and led to many withdrawals. I feel very good — having some off days allows you to better manage your daily routine.”

Griekspoor, 2025: "The conditions here in Shanghai have been brutal all week. I thought we had been lucky to play at night without sun, but after two hours and 36 minutes, halfway through the third set... I feel sorry for him, I wish him a speedy recovery."

Rinderknech, 2025: "I confirm, it's hard to breathe on the court. I don't know if it's noticeable on TV, but on the court, it is challenging from warm-up. There is excessive humidity, worse than in the United States in the summer. Additionally, we know there is a lot of pollution in China's big cities, which probably doesn't help with breathing. There is a layer of clouds that presses everything down, but when the sun comes out, the temperature quickly rises above 30°C. All of that makes it difficult. This week, there is a tennis tournament, but there is a struggle element that has nothing to do with tennis. It's about surviving, finding a way to win. Self-control is important; you have to optimize the body. When I see the soaked fans in the stands, even though they are used to it, I think we are not the only ones struggling."

De Minaur, 2025: "The conditions are tough, very slow. It is very different from what we have been playing. It feels like the slowest conditions I have played in on the circuit. The balls become huge after a couple of games, and the court speed is very, very slow. But there is nothing you can do other than adapt and accept it. So, I am glad to have found a way to win."

Medvedev, 2025: "Compared to 2019 the courts are 25 times slower, they're so slow. It reminds me of Indian Wells. I used to hate playing Indian Wells but now I play my best tennis there. It is what it is. It's very slow. I don't think it's the balls, it's the court, it's very, very rough. It's ok for me and I'm looking forward."

Shang, 2025: "Serve has been a good feeling on the court. It's tough to serve with a heavy ball. In Shanghai and Beijing, both of these tournaments are quite slow, the courts and the ball gets fluffy."

Fritz, 2025: "It is incredibly tough conditions here. It is really different than Tokyo, the ball bounces really slow and I was struggling to get a read on it. I had to play really differently and I didn’t have time to play any practice sets. It is incredibly slow here and if I’m being honest the condition change this year is incredibly bad. Last year the courts were obviously fast on the speed index but the balls were slow so I felt the conditions were actually on the slow side but now the slowed the courts down, the balls are maybe not as slow but they fluff up very quickly so it’s difficult to do anything with them. That’s not to mention the humidity, it feels like the ball is going nowhere.”

Fritz, 2024: "Centre court is much different to these outside courts so as long as I get some time there I will be fine."

Fritz, 2023: "The courts are always fast, but you switch balls, the balls are very, like, soft, slow, they can be kind of dead. So I would say the combination of the two makes it like a medium, I would say a medium speed. I think it goes through, especially on the serve, but sometimes when you kind of spin a ball from the baseline it's a bit, I feel.”

Schwartzman, 2023: "There was a lot of difference between the center court and the court I played today (Court 7)".

Medvedev, 2023: “It used to be one of the fastest courts on Tour, but now I don’t know what is slower, here or Indian Wells. But I’ve played well on slow hard courts so I hope to keep going.”

Fils, 2023: “I think it helps for sure. You get used to the conditions a little bit. It's always tricky playing your first match at a tournament - the conditions, balls and everything are fairly different week-in, week-out so just to be able to get a few reps in my qualifying matches was good and I think it held me in good steady for today.”

Summary

Shanghai is not an easy tournament to classify. Players have won an average of 73.0% of points on first serve over the last three editions, which would normally make me lean towards medium-fast conditions. However, the player comments and the more recent Court Pace Index figures suggest a slower picture.

The clearest example is 2025. Players won 73.7% of their first-serve points, yet the CPI dropped to 32.8, compared with 40.8 in 2024 and 40.1 in 2023. That brought Shanghai much closer to Indian Wells, which recorded 30.9 in 2025.

I find that difference striking, and I do not have a convincing explanation for it. First-serve points won is a useful indicator, but it also depends on the players and matchups. It cannot tell us everything about the speed of the conditions, and we should not expect it to match the CPI perfectly.

The balls appear to be an important part of the picture. Both the previous Wilson balls and the current Yonex balls have been described as fluffing up considerably, making it harder to hit through the court as they get older. This can help explain why players describe slow rallies even when the first-serve numbers remain relatively high.

There are also differences within the tournament. The outside courts appear to play faster than Centre Court, while evening sessions can be noticeably slower. Griekspoor’s comments last year were particularly clear about how difficult it became to hit through the older balls at night.

Humidity adds another consideration: the physical demands. Some players cope with it much better than others, and those who have already spent time competing in similar conditions in Asia may be better prepared.

For this year, the qualifying first-serve figures offer an early comparison:

- 2024: 72.0%

- 2025: 71.1%

- 2026: 71.2%

On this measure, 2026 is almost identical to last year. There is no obvious sign of a change, but qualifying alone is not enough to conclude that conditions are unchanged.

Last year also brought plenty of big upsets, with underdogs returning a remarkable 39% ROI and Favorites a -19% ROI. The tough combination of heat and humidity may have contributed to those results. However, the current forecast suggests less severe heat and humidity this year, so conditions should be easier to handle physically.

I’ll send you the updated stats once the first round is complete.

Draws

Here’s the link to the tournament draws, which you can check for updates at any time:

Main draw: https://www.protennislive.com/posting/2026/5014/mds.pdf
Qualifying Draw: https://www.protennislive.com/posting/2026/5014/qs.pdf