The Real Distribution of Sets at Grand Slams
A data-driven analysis of how Grand Slam matches are decided, from straight-sets wins to five-set battles and retirements.
Tennis Lab
4In Tennis Lab, I analyse tennis betting using data and interactive charts, focusing on how favourites and underdogs behave across different tournaments, surfaces and contexts. The goal is to understand long-term patterns that help build a real betting edge.
Australian Open (Women): Underdogs Are Still a Bad Bet — Just Less Than Men
Betting on underdogs at the Australian Open (Women) is a losing game, but less negative than in the men, due to the best-of-3 format.
Australian Open (Men): The –20.1% Yield that Shows Betting on Underdogs is a Disaster
Discover why betting on underdogs at the Australian Open is a financial disaster. An analysis of 2,008 matches reveals a brutal -20.1% yield.
The Favorite–Longshot Bias in Tennis: Evidence from 40,000 Matches
After analyzing all the ATP matches bets from 2010 to 2025, the conclusion is clear: betting too much on longshots is disastrous long run.