Indian Wells: Where Underdogs Consistently Outperform Favorites
Indian Wells has historically been one of the worst tournaments for betting favorites. Here we break down the numbers — and ask whether this reflects a systematic market inefficiency.
Tennis Lab
7In Tennis Lab, I analyse tennis betting using data and interactive charts, focusing on how favourites and underdogs behave across different tournaments, surfaces and contexts. The goal is to understand long-term patterns that help build a real betting edge.
The "Giant Killer" Effect: What Happens After You Beat Djokovic, Nadal, Federer, Sinner or Alcaraz?
What happens if you bet on the player who just beat Djokovic, Nadal, Federer, Alcaraz or Sinner? How does he do in his next match? Results inside.
Rio's ATP 500 Heat Burns Favorites
Favorites have been a losing bet in Rio since 2010. The data shows a statistically significant gap with underdogs — and the brutal playing conditions might explain why.
Grand Slam Betting: How Often Do Matches Go to 5 Sets?
A data-driven analysis of how Grand Slam matches are decided, from straight-sets wins to five-set battles and retirements.
Australian Open Betting: Underdogs Yield –9.8% (Women)
Betting on underdogs at the Australian Open (Women) is a losing game, but less negative than in the men, due to the best-of-3 format.
Australian Open Betting: Underdogs Lose –20.1% (Men's Data)
Discover why betting on underdogs at the Australian Open is a financial disaster. An analysis of 2,008 matches reveals a brutal -20.1% yield.
The Favorite–Longshot Bias in Tennis: Evidence from 40,000 Matches
Data analysis of 40,000 ATP matches proves the Favorite-Longshot Bias in betting. Underdogs yield -5.6% vs -2.0% on favorites. See the evidence.