Rio 2026 ATP 500 - Tournament Preview
(16 - 22 February) Court speed data, humidity analysis, and player insights reveal why Rio's slow clay is among the toughest on tour—and why underdogs consistently outperform here.
Here is my Preview of the Rio de Janeiro ATP 500 tournament (Rio Open), that is held on 8 clay courts, including a 6,200-seat Stadium, in the Jockey Club Brasileiro.
Speed Statistics
Rio is played on slow clay courts. These are the stats of the last 4 years - the tournament was not held in 2021:
- 66.6% Points won on the first serve
- 72.0% Service Holds
- 0.29 Aces/Game
- 0.14 TB/Set
The stats show that Rio is among the slowest clay tournaments on the circuit.
Past Winners
2025: Baez d. Muller
2024: Baez d. Navone
2023: Norrie d. Alcaraz
2022: Alcaraz d. Schwartzman
2020: Garin d. Mager
The tournament is held since 2014 and only Baez has lifted the title twice, in the last two editions.
Weather
Next week in Rio de Janeiro, expect consistently hot and humid conditions, with daytime highs around 31–32 °C (88–90 °F) and nighttime lows near 24–25 °C (74–77 °F); average relative humidity will likely range between 70–85%, typical of Rio’s tropical coastal climate, and winds should be generally light to moderate at around 10–20 km/h (6–12 mph), with a growing chance of afternoon thunderstorms toward the end of the week, which could briefly increase gusts and moisture levels.
Player Statements
Carabelli, 2025: " I really like slow courts because when I hit hard, the ball doesn’t fly too much, and I can still do damage."
Zverev, 2025:
“I like playing in warm conditions, the ball kicks a bit higher."
"What concerns me a bit is that my elbow may be strained due to the high humidity conditions here. The ball is heavy, hard to move, and that's not ideal for my discomfort."
"The conditions are tough. The air is very heavy and it’s very humid. You get pushed to your limits at times physically."
Norrie, 2024: “I like it when it's really hot and humid. So hopefully the sun comes out and I think on clay especially when it's really hot and it's difficult I feel like I can withstand better than the other players at times.”
Norrie, 2024: “It's really humid, and yeah, everyone is tough regardless of their ranking here on this tournament, you know, with the condition here being quite slow and you have to win the point three or four times. But yeah, I think from last year I can take a lot of confidence knowing that I can do really well in these conditions and I can be really tough to beat. I feel like the balls get quite big so it's, it can be quite slow and the court is quite heavy and it was."
Wawrinka, 2024: “Yeah, so far it's been ok. I practiced yesterday and the day before. Quality is quite similar, of course, it's hot with a lot of humidity, but in Buenos Aires was the same too.”
Alcaraz, 2023: “It was tougher than I thought. I always say it's not easy to change the conditions. I came from Buenos Aires, it's different conditions.”
Norrie, 2023: “Of course these are different conditions, here there is a lot of humidity, which will be the hardest part to deal with.”
Summary
Among the slowest conditions on the circuit.
Balls get bigger and heavy with humidity.
Humidity uses to be an important variable here, so some players can struggle specially. So it’s important to monitor the weather closely.
Underdogs have historically performed very well in Rio, quite the opposite of favorites. The differences are very pronounced.
Could this be due to the hard climatic conditions? It’s possible. I’ll be writing a separate article on this soon.
Draws
Here’s the link to the Qualies and Main draws — you can check it anytime to follow the latest updates and see which players advance through each round:
https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current/rio-de-janeiro/6932/draws
