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Grand Slam Betting: How Often Do Matches Go to 5 Sets?

A data-driven analysis of how Grand Slam matches are decided, from straight-sets wins to five-set battles and retirements.

nishi
nishi
– 2 min read
Scoreboard showing the longest match in tennis history — Isner vs Mahut at Wimbledon
Photo: Pahcal123 / Wikimedia Commons / CC BY-SA 4.0

How Are Grand Slam Matches Decided?

Nearly half (47.2%) of Grand Slam men's matches end in straight sets. Only 18.7% go to five sets, and 3.6% end in retirement.

I got curious about this after noticing that the last six matches at the Australian Open had all been decided in straight sets — until Shelton beat Ruud in four.

So I calculated the breakdown for all Grand Slam matches from 2010 to 2025:

  • 3 sets: 47.2%
  • 4 sets: 30.4%
  • 5 sets: 18.7%
  • Retirement: 3.6%

Breakdown by Tournament

I then went a step further and broke this analysis down by tournament. And here are the results:

Key Findings

What stands out most is that Roland Garros has the highest share of straight-sets wins and the lowest share of five-set matches.

This can make sense: clay is the surface where there is the least room for surprises. Top players tend to dominate underdogs more clearly. One day we’ll put hard numbers on that effect.

Another notable point is that the US Open has by far the highest rate of retirements. It more than doubles the figures seen at Roland Garros and Wimbledon and is around two percentage points higher than the Australian Open. Why?

Although average temperatures during the tournament are similar in New York and Melbourne (around 20°C / 68°F), humidity is significantly higher in New York, roughly 70–75%, compared to 60–65% in Melbourne.

On top of that, and surely more important, the US Open takes place near the end of the season, when players tend to arrive in worse physical condition. These factors likely explain the higher retirement rate.

Aside from that, I don’t see anything particularly remarkable.

What's Next

At some point, I’ll run this same analysis by pre-match odds levels, what can be more important from a betting perspective.

Obviously, the larger the gap between the underdog’s odds and the favorite’s odds, the higher the percentage of matches decided in straight sets and the lower the share of five-set matches.

Still, it should be interesting to see the numbers, especially when evaluating over/under sets markets.

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